Fall has arrived in Waterloo Region, and the market is giving buyers more breathing room than we've seen in a while. Sales have cooled, prices have eased slightly, and yet well-priced homes in the most popular price ranges are still selling quickly, often over asking. Here's a clear look at September's numbers, where the competition is right now, today's mortgage rates, and what it all means if you're thinking about buying, selling or building.
September 2026 at a Glance
Compared with September 2025, across all property types in Waterloo Region:
Sales: down 19.3%
Median sale price: down 3.6%
Homes for sale: down 12.9%
What it means: Sales slowed, but so did new listings, so inventory is actually tighter than it was a year ago. Prices have softened a little, but homes are still selling at or above asking on average. In other words, this isn't a market where sellers are slashing prices. It's a market where buyers have a bit more time to make decisions.
Detached Homes vs. Townhomes and Condos
The two segments are behaving quite differently this fall.
Detached homes
Median sale price: $750,000 (down 2.3%)
Average sale price: $812,433 (down 5.2%)
Homes sold: 268 (down 18.5%)
Average days to sell: 28 days
Sale-to-list price: 100.6%
Months of inventory: 3.2
Townhomes, condos and semis
Median sale price: $545,000 (down 3.4%)
Average sale price: $508,095 (down 9.8%)
Homes sold: 141 (down 20.8%)
Average days to sell: 41 days
Sale-to-list price: 100.0%
Months of inventory: 4.8
Detached homes are moving in about four weeks with just over three months of inventory, which keeps that segment close to balanced. Townhomes and condos are taking closer to six weeks with nearly five months of supply, giving buyers in that segment more room to negotiate on price, conditions and closing dates.
Where the Competition Is: Sales by Price Range
Over the five weeks from September 6 to October 12, 477 homes sold across Waterloo Region at a median price of $690,000, and 38% sold over asking. Here's how that breaks down by price range (share of sales, percentage sold over asking, and average days to sell):
Under $400K: 44 sold (9%), 20% over asking, 40 days
$400K to $499K: 29 sold (6%), 28% over asking, 24 days
$500K to $599K: 75 sold (16%), 40% over asking, 18 days
$600K to $699K: 105 sold (22%), 45% over asking, 19 days
$700K to $799K: 87 sold (18%), 46% over asking, 16 days
$800K to $899K: 54 sold (11%), 41% over asking, 21 days
$900K to $999K: 28 sold (6%), 25% over asking, 26 days
$1M to $1.49M: 45 sold (9%), 31% over asking, 19 days
$1.5M+: 10 sold (2%), 40% over asking, 15 days
What it means: Two-thirds of all sales landed between $500K and $899K, and that's where competition is strongest. Roughly 4 in 10 homes in that range sold over asking, typically within three weeks. Under $500K, where most sales are condo units, homes are taking longer and usually selling a little below list. Between $900K and $1.5M, only about 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 homes sold over asking, which gives move-up buyers more room to negotiate.
Today's Mortgage Rates in Ontario
Lowest insured rates (less than 20% down) available in Ontario as of October 9, 2026:
5-year variable: 3.25%
2- and 3-year fixed: 4.29%
5-year fixed: 4.34%
For comparison, the big banks' 5-year fixed rates are sitting between 4.99% (CIBC, BMO) and 5.34% (TD), while the lowest available 5-year fixed rates come from lenders like Frank Mortgage (4.34%), DUCA (4.39%) and Libro Credit Union (4.44%).
What it means: Shopping around pays. The best 5-year fixed rates are running up to a full point below the big banks, which can mean hundreds of dollars a month on the same mortgage. Variable rates are also sitting about a point under fixed. If you're buying or renewing, talk to a mortgage professional before you sign anything.
What This Market Means for You
If you're buying
You have more choice and more time than you did a year ago, especially in the townhome and condo segment and above $900K. That's room to include conditions, ask for a longer closing, or negotiate on price. In the $500K to $899K range, though, the best homes still attract multiple buyers, so come in pre-approved and ready to move.
If you're selling
Pricing and presentation matter more now than they have in years. Buyers are comparing carefully, and homes that are priced right and marketed well are still selling quickly and at or above asking. The homes that sit are usually the ones that came out overpriced or under-marketed.
If you're considering new construction
A slower resale market can make new construction worth a closer look, particularly with more breathing room in the townhome segment. If you're weighing your options, read our guide on New Construction vs. Resale: What Ontario Buyers Need to Know and our list of 10 Questions to Ask Before You Sign with a Builder.
